Will less (people) bring more (peace)?
The world, according to a UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs report published on Thursday, is projected to reach its peak population at 10.3 bn towards the end of this century. Before then, Europe, Asia and the Americas would have experienced the phenomenon to varying degrees. Some countries are already dealing with declining populations. How does having fewer people who live longer affect an economy? For one, it makes people richer. With rising automation, improvements in productivity ensure economic output will keep climbing well after the workforce begins to shrink. Humans are unproductive for around half their lifespans. As productive activity is taken up by more efficient machines, the economic surplus accruing to the species will mount. Though how mankind divides the surplus among itself is a different issue.
Society will have to make fewer provisions to educate and keep a smaller population healthy. Poverty, hunger and disease will not be as grave as they have been for most of history. Cities would thin out. Inflation and unemployment could be relegated to the history books. Demands on the planet to feed, clothe and provide shelter will diminish. Resource exploitation will be driven by the needs of a growing machine population. But those resources will be prospected further afield in the solar system. The species that has contributed most to destruction of conditions that allow Earth to support life will eventually get around to restoring the natural balance. The pace of extinction of other species will slow after the human population reaches its peak around 2080.
What of the people who live in this Arcadian utopia? Would they be happier? Not if history is any guide. It would take a few centuries to turn the population clock back to the mediaeval age when human conflict began to acquire mass dimension. Even if affluence were to reduce the sources of conflict, there would be the matter of individual happiness. Lengthening lifespans and changing work-leisure trade-offs could make life less satisfying or not.