Dodging bullets: On an assassination bid and U.S. politics
Joe Biden and Donald Trump should not worsen the polarisation after the assassination attempt
Former United States President Donald Trump has narrowly survived an assassination attempt by a gunman who fired at him during a political rally in Butler, Pennsylvania, hitting his ear before the 78-year-old was rushed off the podium by Secret Service agents. The shooter, identified as Thomas Crooks, a registered Republican who also made a small donation to a pro-Democratic group, died when law enforcement officers at the scene returned fire. The dramatic events have unfolded at a fraught time in American politics — not only is the 2024 presidential election a little over three months away, but, ironically, the attack comes after months of Mr. Trump and his supporters periodically indulging in rhetoric that condoned or sympathised with violence or violent intentions in the political sphere. The most notable among these instances was when he said that he believed that the mob that breached the gates of Capitol Hill on January 6, 2021, was comprised of “unbelievable patriots”. To a certain extent, the seriousness of the latest incident, rare but not unprecedented in U.S. political history, engendered sympathy bridging the partisan divide. President Joe Biden unequivocally and immediately condemned the attack on Mr. Trump, saying that there was no place in America for this. “We must unite as one nation to condemn it. It’s sick.” Similar sentiments were expressed by other political figures.
So far as the impact on the election is concerned, Mr. Trump was already projected to be leading Mr. Biden narrowly in swing States — critical to the election result — in a range of polls. Now, that lead may widen, although whether it will be unassailable by election day remains to be seen. The ratings of former President Ronald Reagan jumped dramatically after he was shot by a man on March 30, 1981, 69 days after assuming office, yet that boost disappeared within several weeks. The more complex and troubling question is the extent to which the Trump campaign, in its bid to capitalise on the near martyrdom of its candidate, will adopt the language of hate politics, building on vicious comments that have already been circulating on social media since the attack, many of them blaming Democrats for the violence and deliberately conflating political opposition with personal animus. If the two presidential candidates, their campaign teams, and their party leaders abandon common civility in what should ideally be a structured partisan contest and allow baser populist instincts to dominate their speeches in the months ahead, it will inevitably exacerbate the already bitter state of polarisation in the public discourse. Whoever wins on November 5 would then stand on the brink of a deeply troubled polity, hardly the ideal scenario to build bipartisan bridges, so essential to ensure that the U.S. can tackle the many challenges it faces, foreign and domestic.