In search of jobs: On the challenge of employment generation
Technology must be harnessed for easing burden and for efficiency
Employment generation will remain a major challenge before the Narendra Modi government in its third term, and the upcoming Union Budget is expected to take note of it. There are no easy ways out, given the swelling numbers of young job seekers, and the changing nature of the economy that requires fewer workers, thanks to rapid technological advancement. Recent studies have highlighted the seriousness of the challenge. The Annual Survey of Unincorporated Sector Enterprises (ASUSE) notes that just 21% of the total establishments used the Internet for entrepreneurial activities. The survey, quite similar to a previous report of the International Labour Organisation (ILO), says the unincorporated non-agricultural economy employed about 11 crore workers during October 2022 to September 2023 in comparison to about 9.8 crore workers during 2021-22. The ILO’s India Employment Report had also warned that the share of manufacturing employment was stagnant, at around 12%-14% and the slow transition of jobs from agriculture to non agriculture reversed due to the COVID-19 pandemic. A Citigroup report too said the current rate of job creation will not be sufficient to meet future demand. The ASUSE had also noted that ‘Other Services’ contributed the maximum share (36.45%) to the total employment followed by ‘trading’ (35.61%) and ‘manufacturing’ (27.94%). Various Periodic Labour Force Surveys had also noted that 45.76% of the total workforce was engaged in agriculture and allied sectors during 2022-23.
While the government cannot magically change the situation, it can initiate thoughts about solutions. The Swadeshi Jagran Manch has demanded that the Centre impose a robot tax and incentivise job creation in the Budget. The trade unions have asked the Centre to convene the long-pending Indian Labour Conference. Union Labour Minister Mansukh Mandaviya’s decision to reach out to trade unions is a positive development, but he must have stronger prescriptions than the Labour Codes to stop job losses and generate more jobs. Technological innovations should be to reduce the workload of people, and not to create hurdles for their livelihood. To industrialise agriculture production, the government should consider more public and cooperative investment to create more jobs and ease the load on farmers. It has to bring on board the private and public sectors, labour unions, States and political parties to design a growth model with job creation at its centre. Recent global experiences suggest that economic growth without employment growth can cause social and political upheavals. This is not a problem that can be explained away, and an honest account of the problem will be a good starting point for mitigative measures.