Express View on shelving an elephant census: Elephant in the room

A reliable population estimate is a basic prerequisite for conserving endangered animals. However, most wildlife, especially large mammals, is not easy to survey — the animals are often camouflaged or on the move. That’s why enumeration methods, across the world, have to be refined frequently. In India, for instance, the tiger crisis of 2005 led to conversations over the procedures to count the majestic animal. Though questions continue to be raised over the exact numbers of the big cat, the Tiger Census today provides a more accurate picture of the status of the animal compared to the early years of this century. Other animals, however, have not received comparable attention. The country’s other charismatic mammal, the elephant, is a case in point. A census is conducted every five years to measure its population. After 2017, the Wildlife Institute of India (WII), the surveying agency, changed its method. From relying on direct headcount or dung count of elephants, the WII adopted the statistical modeling approach used to monitor tigers. Its report, which shows a substantial decline in the animal’s population could well be a reflection of the long-term status of the elephant — and not the five years of the Census. The findings could have led to a debate on the conservation of the animal, which has come into frequent conflict with humans in the last two decades. However, as an investigation by this newspaper shows, government has chosen to shelve the report.

The elephant’s habitat has undergone changes in recent years due to the conversion of forest areas to agriculture and development projects. As the WII report points out, fragmentation of habitats “has prompted long-ranging elephants to venture into unoccupied areas.” Unable to find food or dispersal areas, the large animals become crop raiders. Population estimates that map the animal’s distribution and herd structure — not just in reserve forests, but also in human-dominated landscapes — could be the first step to reduce such conflicts. The data can spur discussions on a viable population that can share space with humans. The information can also lay the ground for eco-sensitive developmental planning.

In 2010, an Elephant Task Force, constituted by the environment ministry, advocated a “robust science-based assessment and monitoring” of the large mammals. The then UPA government did not do much by way of working on the panel’s recommendations. The NDA government claims that the elephant’s status has stabilised in the country. Its prevarication over the latest survey, however, casts its efforts in conserving the elephant in poor light and also goes against claims of finding solutions to human-animal conflicts.