First step: On the Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire

Without further measures, Israel’s ceasefire with Hezbollah will not hold

When Hezbollah decided to start firing rockets into Israel in October 2023 after the Israel-Hamas war broke out, “in solidarity with the Palestinians”, the then chief of the Shia militant group, Hassan Nasrallah, said he would cease fire only if Israel ceased fire in Gaza. When Israel Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu decided to send ground troops into Lebanon on October 1, 2024 — Israel’s fourth invasion — he said the main objective was for the over 50,000 residents of northern Israel, displaced by Hezbollah rockets, to return to their homes. In less than two months, Hezbollah and Israel have climbed down from their maximalist positions and agreed to a U.S. and France-mediated ceasefire. According to the agreement, all Israeli troops would withdraw from Lebanon to the Israeli side of the border, while Hezbollah would redeploy its forces to the north of the Litani river. The Lebanese army would be deployed in areas between the Israeli border and the Litani and entrusted with enforcing the ceasefire. Both sides have claimed victory. Israel says Hezbollah is not the same organisation it used to be, while Hezbollah claimed that it had taken a “divine victory” against the Israelis. The reality is that both have suffered setbacks and wanted a break.

Hezbollah lost many fighters and top commanders, including Nasrallah. Hezbollah strongholds in Lebanon, including the border villages and the Dahiye, the southern Shia neighbourhood of Beirut, were pulverised by Israel. Israel’s failures were starker. True, Israel possesses higher air superiority which it used to weaken Hezbollah’s capabilities. But it did not make many territorial advances in southern Lebanon. It faced stiff resistance from Hezbollah and took high casualties. Worse, Israel’s bombings had little impact on Hezbollah’s capability to fire rockets. On November 24, Hezbollah fired over 250 rockets into Israel. Some hit high security zones, including a residence of Mr. Netanyahu. According to a Channel 13 poll, most Israelis believe that Hezbollah has not been defeated. So, given their setbacks, it is unsurprising that both sides have given up their original demands and settled for a ceasefire. While it is good news for West Asia, it could be short-lived if further measures are not taken. Israel and Hezbollah could rearm and refresh themselves before returning to fighting if Israel’s disproportionate war on Gaza continues. The U.S., which played a constructive role in the Lebanon ceasefire, should build on the momentum and push for a ceasefire in Gaza. U.S. President Joe Biden has less than two months in office, which he should use to correct a policy that gave unconditional support for Israel’s war on Gaza and use America’s leverage over its ally to bring some relief to millions of Palestinians living under constant Israeli bombardment.