New opportunity: On a reset in India-Canada ties.
India and Canada can discuss a reset in ties after new Prime Minister takes over.
The newly elected leader of Canada’s ruling Liberal Party, Mark Carney, who is now Prime Minister-designate, has a tough task ahead in what is expected to be a short period of time. Mr. Carney, who is set to take over from Justin Trudeau when he formally steps down this week, will almost immediately face a confidence vote in Parliament, after it reconvenes on March 24. Federal elections in Canada are due in October 2025, but observers say Mr. Carney could call for snap polls first, hoping to ride a surge of unexpected popularity for the Liberal Party for standing up to threats made by the U.S. President Donald Trump since he took office. Mr. Trump has consistently targeted Mr. Trudeau, suggesting that Canada would be better off as the “U.S.’s 51st State”, and has been threatening to impose a slew of tariffs, accusing Canada of unfair duties as well as allowing fentanyl drugs and immigrants across the border. Canada has threatened counter-tariffs, and is considering a 25% surcharge on electricity exports to the U.S., with Mr. Carney claiming that “in trade, as in hockey, Canada will win”. Mr. Carney, who is unelected and not a traditional politician, will have to convince voters of his ability to ensure that, as he takes on his rival, Conservative Party leader Pierre Poilievre, who has been far ahead in the polls until recent weeks. To that end, Mr. Carney’s non-political skills will come handy. He was an economist and a central bank Governor; that he was not a member of the Trudeau cabinet means that he is free of any taint from its actions.
The exit of Mr. Trudeau is cause for relief for India, and an opportunity to reset ties that have been on ice. His intemperate decision to name “Indian government agents” and then expel Indian diplomats, implicating them in a purported plot to kill Khalistani activist Hardeep Singh Nijjar, without proffering any proof, was a miscalculation and diplomatic blunder. The actions, seen in comparison to more discreet dealing by the U.S. in a linked case, sent India-Canada ties to their lowest ebb since the 1980s. It is significant that India is considering restoring a High Commissioner to Ottawa, while Canada is sending its intelligence chief to a conference in Delhi. Mr. Carney and Mr. Poilievre have made it clear that they would like to rework the relationship with India, and there will be opportunities to do so, particularly in education, investment and trade, all of which have taken a back seat after the violence and schisms within India’s diaspora community, and its supporters in Canada’s government. The interlude is also a fitting period for New Delhi to consider how it wishes to take ties forward. Regardless of the change in leadership, the Khalistan issue cannot be wished away, and requires sustained, considered diplomacy and respect for each other’s concerns, while ensuring India’s national security priorities.