PM’s three-nation tour: Three countries, one new story.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s three-nation tour to Jordan, Ethiopia and Oman this week underlined India’s bid to consolidate its strategic footprint in the Middle East and the Horn of Africa at a moment of unprecedented geopolitical change in the region. US President Donald Trump’s success in negotiating a ceasefire of sorts in Gaza, his attack on Iranian nuclear facilities, a more intensive commercial outreach to the oil-rich Gulf states, and effort to widen the ambit of the Abraham Accords underline the shifting geopolitical terrain. India’s own relationship with the region has seen significant gains in the last few years. External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar’s visit to Israel amid the PM’s visit to the region underlines that India’s partnerships straddle regional divides. With the exception of Turkey, India has a productive engagement with all the key actors. But the surprising turn in Saudi-Pakistan relations and the US attempt to draw the Pakistan army into the Middle East security arrangements reminds Delhi that it can’t take the region for granted.
The visit saw substantive bilateral outcomes, elevating of partnerships and signing of key agreements. In Amman, PM Modi and King Abdullah II reviewed ties on the 75th diplomatic anniversary. Besides the focus on expanded trade, the discussions focused on regional developments, including in Gaza, and counter-terrorism. In Addis Ababa, PM Modi upgraded ties with Ethiopia to a “Strategic Partnership” with a roadmap for rapid expansion of trade, investment and defence cooperation. Modi and the Ethiopian Prime Minister, Abiy Ahmed Ali, also discussed the importance of aligning with the regional agenda of the African Union and India’s advocacy of the Global South. The highlight of Modi’s visit to Oman — India’s oldest partner in the region — was the signing of a Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) to boost trade, jobs and investment. Modi and Sultan Haitham bin Tariq also reviewed the deepening bilateral defence and maritime security cooperation.
All three countries — Jordan, Ethiopia and Oman — are significant for the geopolitics of the neighbourhood to the west. The PM’s visits brought to the fore different critical policy strands — security in the Middle East, economic development of Africa, and connectivity in the Indian Ocean. But Delhi’s persistent challenge has been the inability to follow up on the implementation of the decisions taken during the PM’s visits. With China and Pakistan stepping up their activity in the Middle East and the Horn of Africa — the former on economics and the latter on security —India no longer has the luxury of resting on its diplomatic laurels.