Fractured Yemen: On the Persian Gulf region’s geopolitical fault line.
Saudi Arabia and UAE must help all Yemeni factions come together.
The flare-up in fighting between Yemen’s Saudi-backed government and the Southern Transitional Council (STC), a separatist force backed by the UAE, has exposed the country’s internal vulnerabilities and the Persian Gulf region’s geopolitical fault lines. The crisis escalated in early December when the Aden-based STC launched a surprise offensive in the oil-rich Hadhramaut and al-Mahra governorates, which were under government control. It gained control of nearly half of the former South Yemen state, but the advances were short-lived. Government forces, covered by Saudi air power, swiftly recaptured the lost areas. On January 7, government forces entered Aden, forcing the STC to send a delegation to Riyadh for talks. In the Saudi capital, the STC announced its dissolution, while its leader, Aidarus al-Zoubaidi, who has been charged with treason, is believed to have fled to the UAE. The crisis also brought Saudi-UAE tensions into the open. Riyadh accused Abu Dhabi of transferring weapons to Yemeni separatists, and carried out air strikes on the port of Mukalla, reportedly targeting arms shipments. Following a rare public rebuke from Saudi Arabia, the UAE announced its withdrawal of forces from Yemen and an end to its “counterterrorism operations”.
The UAE was a part of Saudi Arabia’s military coalition when it began bombing the Houthis (Ansar Allah), the Shia militia that captured Sanaa, Yemen’s capital, in 2014. But the years-long war did little to defeat the Houthis. The Saudi-backed government operated from Aden in the south, until the STC began challenging it. The UAE then began support to the STC. Saudi Arabia, facing a direct security threat from the Houthis along its southern borders, entered into a ceasefire with the group, and sought to stabilise southern Yemen through the government. Yet, Riyadh grew increasingly alarmed by the expanding military power and defiance of the separatists. As government forces and the STC fought for influence in the south, the Houthis entrenched their position in the north, encompassing key population centres. The true victims of this multi-layered conflict, however, have been Yemen’s civilians. The country faces one of the world’s worst humanitarian crises, with millions on the brink of famine, an economy in ruins and devastated infrastructure. For now, an uneasy calm prevails in the south. But STC representatives in the UAE have dismissed claims that the council has been disbanded. For peace to take hold, all Yemeni factions must together establish a federal governance structure, addressing present power dynamics and historical grievances. For this to happen, Saudi Arabia and the UAE must bury the hatchet and work jointly for stability in their impoverished neighbouring country.